Transport Market Outlook - Q2 2025

Capacity and Pricing: The air cargo market is expected to see continued growth, driven by robust e-commerce demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions. However, capacity constraints persist due to reduced belly cargo availability and a limited supply of wide-body freighters, particularly on key trade routes. This imbalance between supply and demand is likely to keep spot rates elevated. For instance, in January 2025, global air freight traffic increased by 3.2% year-on-year, while available capacity grew by 6.8%, leading to a slight decrease in load factors.

Geopolitical and Trade Influences: Potential new U.S. tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico could cause short-term spikes in air freight demand as shippers expedite shipments to avoid increased costs. However, these tariffs may also lead to longer-term shifts in trade patterns, affecting air cargo volumes. Additionally, the ongoing Red Sea crisis continues to force some shippers to opt for air freight to avoid disrupted sea routes, further straining capacity and influencing rates.

Capacity and Pricing: The sea freight industry is facing challenges related to overcapacity. Shipowners have placed record orders for container vessels, with the global order book reaching 8.4 million twenty-foot containers—the highest since 2000. This surge raises concerns about potential downturns, especially amid global economic uncertainties. ​

Geopolitical Influences: Ongoing conflicts, notably in the Red Sea, have disrupted shipping routes. Attacks have compelled vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times and increasing operational costs. Resolving these conflicts could potentially reduce sea freight prices by 20-25% within a few months. ​

Tariffs and Regulatory Changes: The European road freight sector is currently stable, with no significant tariff changes reported. However, the industry remains vigilant regarding potential regulatory adjustments that could impact operations and costs.​

Market Dynamics: The sector continues to navigate challenges such as driver shortages and fluctuating fuel prices, which influence operational expenses and pricing structures.​

Air Freight: Given the anticipated capacity constraints and potential rate increases, shippers should plan shipments well in advance, explore alternative routes, and consider flexible shipping options to mitigate costs.​

Sea Freight: Stay informed about geopolitical developments that may impact shipping routes and costs. Diversifying supply chains and considering alternative shipping methods can help manage potential disruptions.​

Road Freight: Monitor regulatory developments within the EU that could affect tariffs and operational costs. Collaborating closely with logistics partners can aid in navigating any changes effectively.​