Global airfreight demand remains elevated: carriers report YOY demand growth of about 5.8%, despite capacity increases driven by added belly space and dedicated freighters.

Summer peak demand—boosted by tariff front-loading—has started to ease in early Q3 as duties kicked back in and seasonal shipment volumes stabilized.

Rates are still ~5–17% below mid‑2024 levels; volatility persists due to policy uncertainty and summer routing disruptions.

Expect capacity to normalize via late 2025 as passenger flights recover fully and belly space increases.

However, tariff uncertainty and emergency reroutes (e.g., Middle East) mean short-term tightening remains possible.

Q3 sees a recovery in ocean volumes, supported by ongoing Red Sea diversions. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) shows spot rates around $3,074/TEU, doubling Q3 2024 and up ~19% over Q2.

Container lines are profitable again: estimated Q3 profits hit $26.8 billion, a jump from Q2 and well above prior year’s profits.

Strong pricing power continues with global GRIs and carriers avoiding blank sailings. Recent tariffs and shipping lane reroutes sustain rates at historically high levels.

Momentum into late Q3 is strong, though oversupply risk looms if Red Sea disruptions ease or new vessels launch.

Tariff developments, port fees, and global trade deals remain key catalysts for rate volatility .

EU road freight rates are holding steady in Q3, following fuel price normalization. Diesel prices are at 2021 lows, offsetting capacity constraints caused by driver shortages (~426,000 unfilled positions in 2024).

Road volumes predicted to grow modestly (~1.1% in 2025), keeping rates stable unless fuel prices spike .

Fuel remains low but geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose upside risk.

Carrier margins are tested by rising labor, tolls, and new equipment/regulatory costs—but low volumes curb aggressive pricing.

Flat-to-slight recovery trend continuing into Q3, with stable rates and manageable cost environment. Road-to-sea modal shifts may increase if ocean prices correct downward.